Weather experts predict an ‘almost normal’ season, with 5 to 9 possible hurricanes
The US National Hurricane Center serves as WMO’s regional specialized meteorological hub, located in Miami, Florida.
According to forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an ‘above-normal season’ and also a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The hurricane season in the Atlantic region, including the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the US, lasts from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA forecasts a total of between 12 and 17 named storms, representing winds of at least 63 kilometers per hour or 39 miles per hour.
Up to 4 major hurricanes
Among potential hurricanes, it predicts one to four “major hurricanes” — categories three to five — with winds of at least 111 mph, or 178 kph.
WMO said NOAA has “70 percent confidence in these ranges.
“It is expected to be less active than in recent years, due to competing factors — some suppressing storm development and others fueling it — that drive this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season, NOAA said.” reported WMO in a press. Edition.
However, the agency reminded that it is necessary just one a major hurricane that made landfall to delay years of growth and development.
Statistics presented to the ongoing World Meteorological Congress showed how small island developing states are suffering disproportionately, both in terms of economic impact and human toll.
Early warning necessary
For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost the Caribbean island nation of Dominica a as much as 800 percent of its gross domestic product.
“Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones (the generic term that includes hurricanes) were the leading cause of both reported human and economic losses worldwide, accounting for more than 2,000 disasters,” said WMO.
However, the death toll from deadly storms has dropped from about 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in 2010-2019. Reported economic losses in 2010-2019 were $573.2 billion.
“Tropical cyclones are big killers and a single storm can undo years of socio-economic development. The death toll has dropped dramatically thanks to improvements in forecasting, warnings and disaster risk reduction. But we can do even better,” says WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“The UN Early Warnings for All initiative aims to ensure everyone has access to warnings for life-threatening winds, storm surges and rainfall over the next five years, especially in developing small island developing states that are on the front line of climate change.” said.
Name that storm
Has an average Atlantic hurricane season 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, eight of which became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes (Ian and Fiona). Both 2020 and 2021 were so active that the regular list of changing names was exhausted.
After three hurricane seasons with a La Niña, there is great potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which could stifle Atlantic hurricane activity. El Nino’s potential impact on storm development could be offset by favorable local conditions in the tropical Atlantic basin.
New model increases preparation time
“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more critical,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.
“To that end this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecasting model and extending the graphic outlook for the tropical cyclone from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities more time to prepare for storms.”